Class Notes:

• Rolling Back Decision Trees

• Problem 4.8 - Decision Tree

• Problem 4.8 - Influence Diagram

• Basic Risky Decision

• Cost to Loss Ratio Problem

• Exercise 7.3

• Probabilities and Bayes Theorem

• Test Your Judgment

• Heuristics and Biases Exercises

• John Hinckley's Trial

• Probability Wheel (Free sample from Insight.xla by Sam Savage)

• Bayesian Statistics

• Utility Demonstration

• Utility Functions Explained (This file is big!!)

Rene van Dorp's notes from GWU:

• Making Hard Decisions: chapter 1 & 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10a, 10b, 12, 13 & 14, 15 & 16