1/12 - Class Administration

We'll talk about the course and what you will learn.

1/14 - Simulation as a Decision Tool

Before class: Read Ch 1.

In class: We will discuss the many applications of simulation and its use in operations research as a decision tool (Lecture Slides) and begin to play with Arena.

1/19 - No Class

Martin Luther King Day

1/21 - Introduction to Arena.

Before class: Read KSS (Arena book) Ch. 3. Build the model discussed as you read.

In class: We will review the reading (Lecture Slides) and then work in teams on Ex. 3.6-3.9.

Homework: Ex. 3.10.

1/26 - Hand Simulation

Before class: Read KSS 2.4-2.6 (Arena book). You could also take a look at Inside Simulation Software by Thomas Schriber & Daniel Brunner and/or BCN (red book) Ch 2.

In class: I will demonstrate the use of spreadsheets in representing the mechanics of a simulation. Here is a template. You will then modify the spreadsheet to answer BCN Qu. 2.1-2.4.

1/28 - Queuing Models

Before class: Read KSS 2.2.

In class: We will use spreadsheets for M/M/1, M/M/s and M/M/s/n queuing models and compare their modeling power with simple Arena simulations. We will use this to do BCN Qu. 6.1, 6.2, 6.3, 6.19.

2/2 - Simulation Modeling vs. Queuing Analysis

Before class: Read Don’t Simulate When by Jerry Banks & Randall Gibson.

In class: We will discuss the advantages and disadvantages of simulation. We will build M/M/1, M/M/s, M/M/s/N and M/M/K/K queuing models using Arena and then make system modifications that make analytical analysis impossible.

2/4 - Basic Modeling

Before class: Read KSS 4.1. Build the model discussed as you read.

In class: We will discuss model 4.1 from KSS and then work in teams on KSS Qu. 4.1, 4.2, 4.4.

Homework: Start thinking about your project and do KSS Qu. 4.2.

2/9 - Resource Schedules and Failures

Before class: Read KSS 4.2 & 4.3. Build the model discussed as you read.

In class: We will discuss models 4.2 and 4.3 from KSS and then work in teams on KSS Qu. 4.3, 4.5, 4.8.

2/11 - Project Modeling Lab

Homework: Write a project proposal (2-5 pages). Include the objectives of your simulation study, a system description, key output measures you will use, and any experimentation you intend to perform and alternative system configurations you intend to test. Due on Wednesday 2/25.

2/16 - Sequences, Variables, Expressions and Sets

Before class: Read KSS 5.1-5.4. Build the model discussed as you read.

In class: We will discuss model 5.1 from KSS and then work in teams on KSS Qu. 5.2, 5.3, 5.4.

2/18 - Intermediate Modeling

Before class: Read KSS 7.1. Build the model discussed as you read. Your project proposal is due a the start of class.

In class: We will discuss models 7.1 from KSS and then work in teams on KSS Qu. 7.4, 7.5, 7.6, 7.7.

Homework: Continue work on proposal.

2/23 - Transporters

Before class: Read KSS 8.1-8.3. Build the model discussed as you read.

In class: We will discuss models 8.1, 8.2 and 8.3 from KSS and then work in teams on KSS Qu. 8.1.

2/25 - Conveyors

Before class: Read KSS 8.4. Build the model discussed as you read.

In class: We will discuss models 8.4 and 8.5 from KSS and then work in teams on KSS Qu. 8.2.

Homework: Build a basic model of your system. Be ready to demonstrate in class on Wednesday 3/4.

3/2 - Project Modeling Lab

In class: Be ready to demonstrate your model in class and discuss improvements and modeling strategies.

3/4 - Project Modeling Lab

In class: Be ready to demonstrate your model in class and discuss improvements and modeling strategies.

Homework: Work on your simulation models. over spring break.

Spring Break

3/16 - Generating Random Numbers

Before class: Read KSS 12.1-12.2.

In class: We will take a look at linear congruential generators (LCGTests.xls) and answer BCN Ex. 4.1 and then take a look at generating non-uniform distributions in Excel. We will generate a normal distribution (mean 12, standard deviation 6), a gamma distribution (shape or alpha of 4, scale or beta of 3) and an exponential distribution (mean of 12 or lambda of 1/12). Lecture Slides

3/18 - Arena's Input Analyzer

Before class: Read KSS 4.6. Follow on with the analysis as you read. Here are a couple of distribution files: sample 1, sample 2, sample 3.

In class: We will discuss the reading and do KSS Qu. 4.17 and BCN Qu. 9.12, 9.13.

Homework: Consider whether your model can be adapted for your experimentation or alternative system configurations. Can it help you make the decisions you want to make with it?

3/23 - Statistical Input Analysis

Before class: Read Input Modeling by Larry Leemis (or BCN Ch. 9).

In class: We will discuss the reading (lecture slides) and do BCN Qu. 9.14, 9.16, 9.17, 9.18.

3/25 - Output Analyzer and Terminating Simulations

Before class: Read KSS 6.1-6.3 and Output Analysis by Averill Law (or BCN 11.1-11.4).

In class: We will discuss the reading and do KSS Qu. 61., 6.3, 6.4.

Homework: Improve your input distributions with probability models fitted to any data you have available.

3/30 - Verification and Debugging

Before class: Read KSS 4.5, 7.1.6, and 13.6 and Validation & Verification by Robert Sargent (or BCN Ch. 10 if you have it).

In class: We will take a look at the debugging capabilities of Arena.

4/1 - Validation

In class: We will discuss what it means for a model to be valid and how you might validate your project models.

Homework: Work on validating and debugging your model

4/6 - Comparing Systems

Before class: Read KSS 6.4-6.5 and Selecting the Best Alternative by David Goldsman and Barry Nelson (or BCNN 12.1-12.2).

In class: We will discuss the reading and do KSS 5.3, 5.6 and BCN Qu. 12.1, 12.9, 12.13.

4/8 - No Class. I am in DC at DHS.

Homework: Consider how to analyze the outputs of your model as a terminating system.

4/13 - Output Analyzer and Steady-State Simulations

Before class: Read KSS 7.2 (and BCN 11.5 if you have it).

In class: We will discuss the reading and do KSS Qu. 7.1, 7.2, 7.3 and BCN Qu. 11.12, 11.16, 11.20.

Homework: Consider how to analyze the outputs of your model as a steady-state system.

4/15 - Simulation Optimization

Before class: Read KSS 6.6 (and BCNN 12.4 if you have it).

In class: We will discuss how difficult it is to optimize when your objective function is stochastic and use Opt Quest as our solution to the problem. If you are interested, here is a paper on the methods used in Opt Quest. Lecture Slides

Homework: Prepare a final presentation of your project and your recommendations for the system you simulated.

4/20 - No Class

4/22 - Project Presentations

In class: You will give an overview of your project and show us your simulation model.

4/27 - Project Presentations

In class: The projects will be presented.

4/29 - Project Presentations

In class: The projects will be presented.

After Class: Write your final report. Include the analysis to determine the best solution to the problem you are solving using simulation in your project. Write a short (3-5 page) report about your analysis and conclusions. Back up everything with sound statistical analysis and state how you showed the statistical significance of your conclusions.

5/7 - Hand in Final Project.

Your final simulation model and the analysis report are due.